How To Fix Traffic Forever
You're driving down the road on your way to work,
but then, oh no! Traffic jam again?! The minute slowly pass by as you're stewing in your car, waiting
for the column to budge. Finally it does. Barely. But there's good news! The city will widen the road
to six lanes in order to solve the traffic problem! And once they do, as promised, traffic starts to
flow. But then, a few months later, oh no! Traffic jam again?! The road is widened again, this time to
eight lanes. Again, traffic starts to flow, but a few months later – you guessed it – traffic jam. Where
did all these cars come from? How come the roads always fill up no matter how much we widen them?
This phenomenon is called Induced Demand.
It was first discovered in America in 1930. Back then
it was called traffic generation, and since then politicians around the world have been doing their
best to pretend it doesn't exist. Induced Demand, in the simplest terms means that adding more lanes,
thus making traffic flow faster, will motivate more people to get in their cars, leading to more
traffic. This is why, when we widen the road, more cars appear on it, seemingly out of nowhere. Those
extra cars are driven by those people who would have otherwise chosen alternative modes of transit
to get around. Some would have taken the train, some the bus, some the bike, others would have walked,
as driving was slow due to traffic jams. But as soon as the road was widened and the traffic
jams disappeared, thousands of people happily switched back to their fast and comfortable
cars for their commute, thereby causing traffic jams once again. Fair enough, you might say, but if
the demand is there, we could just keep widening the road until everyone fits, thereby solving
the traffic jam problem! Right? Unfortunately no. In Texas, the Katy Freeway was widen to its current,
unbelievable 26 lanes in width to ease traffic. Once the project was completed however, commute
times in the morning increased by 30%, and in the evening by 55%.
In other words, the state of
Texas spent $2.8 billion to make their commute worse. All because politicians chose to pretend yet
again that induced demand isn't real. Building more lanes will not solve traffic. Not in 1930, not now,
not ever. As urban planner Lewis Mumford said in 1955: Building more roads to prevent congestion is
like a fat man loosening his belt to prevent obesity. Self-driving cars won't get us out of this
mess either. If anything, they would only make things much worse. Imagine someone owning three
cars with a self-driving function. They get into the first, and go shopping. Then they send the second
one to pick up their kid from school, and the third to go to the mechanic. One person just generated
three cars worth of traffic, so unless you can find a way to widen the Katy Freeway from 26 Lanes to
78, self-driving cars are a bad idea. So what's the actual solution to traffic? Counter-intuitively
it's the REDUCTION of road capacity, coupled with providing good alternatives. The more good
alternatives you provide while simultaneously scaling down expensive car infrastructure, the
more people will leave their cars at home, thereby reducing traffic jams.
Let's take this average six
lane road. Dedicating two lanes to public transit and turning two other lanes into safe, separated
bike paths will actually INCREASE road capacity, and also reduce traffic as people opt for the
faster tram, bus or bike, instead of the slow, jammed car lanes. Because turns out induced demand
also works in reverse! The more you widen the road, the more people will choose the car, and the more
traffic jams you get. The more you NARROW the road, the less people will choose the car, and the
less traffic jams you get. As the saying goes, if you plan your cities for cars and traffic, you get
cars and traffic. If you plan for people and places, you get people and places. Of course this requires
political courage. Initially any such measure will meet stiff opposition from people used to the
convenience and comfort of their cars. The same thing happened in Amsterdam, if you can believe
it. Back then the population was largely hostile towards anti-congestion, bike friendly measures,
but now that people saw what decongestion and car-free living mean, everyone got on board and
started demanding even more.
As you can see, the problem of traffic jams isn't unsolvable. Amsterdam
has already done it, and there is nothing stopping your city from becoming the next Amsterdam. In fact,
chances are your city already is Amsterdam . . In the 1960s. All it takes to fix traffic is political
courage. Something increasingly rare these days. So don't be afraid of decongestion and lane
reduction measures! They will not make traffic worse! On the contrary, those are the only solutions
ever known to finally, once and for all, fix traffic..
